To conduct their study, researchers at Thomas Jefferson University examined four fracture prediction tools; the FRAX, the 2006 North American Menopause Society (NAMS) position statement, the 2010 NAMS position statement, and age alone.

“Currently available fracture risk-prediction algorithms all have their own limitations, and some of them, such as the NAMS treatment guidelines, weren’t even tested for accuracy of fracture-risk prediction,” said lead researcher Dr. Xuezhi Jiang. “By conducting this study, we sought to determine the predictive values of the various osteoporosis management models and to compare the predictive value of age alone with these models.”

Fracture Study

The study involved more than 600 women over the age of 50. The average age of the participants was 61.4 years, and 94.5 percent of the population was white. The study found that 15 of the women experienced a fracture, and nine of those individuals had osteoporosis.

When put through the risk assessment guides, researchers revealed that the FRAX and NAMS 2006 algorithims identified nine of the 15 fractures as being high enough risk to warrant preventative therapy, while the NAMS 2010 test identified 12 of the 15 women. Age, however, provided some surprising findings. Looking at age alone revealed that a postmenopausal woman who was older than 65 was 10.2 times more likely to suffer a fracture than their younger counterparts.

Dr. Jiang said doctors know that age is a predictive factor for fracture, but its association is even clearer in the wake of the study.

“We’re not implying age alone should be used as an independent predictor of fractures. Instead, age should be carefully considered when clinicians are evaluating patients for osteoporosis screening and treatment. As we’ve emphasized in the manuscript, we’re not suggesting that we abandon the current osteoporotic fracture-prediction models. Instead, the current models need additional refinement to provide the best fracture prediction for our patients.”

Dr. Silverman comments

These findings aren’t a tremendous surprise, but it’s always nice when you can prove what you expect.

When you get older, your bones tend to get more fragile. Your muscles get less coordinated, your balance is affected, and you are more likely to fall and suffer a fracture. It’s great that this study confirms what we already expect, and it should help treatment strategies for at-risk patients.

Related source: MedPage Today

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