It’s uncertain exactly when Governor Tim Walz may put an end to the social distancing order, but it’s unlikely that everything will go back to normal all at once. If you’ve listened to Dr. Anthony Fauci, you’ve probably heard him say that returning to normalcy is not going to be like “flipping a switch.” Instead, it will be a gradual shift towards normalcy.
To get a better understand of what life will be like as we transition out of social distancing, we can take a look at a case example out of Germany. In the community of Gangelt, a large portion of individuals were exposed to the SARS-CoV2 during a Karneval gathering. 1,000 individuals in a community of 12,529 were tested as a part of this case study, and the results of 500 were used to get a better understanding of the situation.
Researchers believe that roughly 15 percent of the community has recovered from the coronavirus and developed an immunity to the current strain. Not only can this 15 percent no longer get the coronavirus, but they can’t pass it on to others. This is a micro version of herd immunity, and it will significantly slow the spread of the virus because SARS-CoV2 has fewer places to thrive. Even in smaller segments, as more people recover from the condition, the virus will die out faster simply because it can’t move as freely as it once could, because a portion of carriers will be immune.
More Steps Taken
However, simply letting the virus run its course and eventually developing herd immunity isn’t the only way the town of Gengelt expects to deal with the virus. Researchers say that a few additional steps will greatly limit the virus’ ability to find new hosts, even with a portion of the town being immune. Those steps include:
1. Social Isolation – We’re already in this stage, but limiting contact with others can help the virus die out faster. As we near the end of this stage, we transition to…
2. Gradual Isolation Loosening – More businesses and areas like parks will begin to reopen, but mass gatherings should still be avoided. Researchers say this gradual isolation loosening must be paired with…
3. Increased Hygienic Behaviors – It’s inevitable that more people will potentially be exposed as we gradually reopen the country, but we can reduce the spread of the virus by continuing to practice very thorough hygiene. Not only will this help prevent us from contracting the condition, but if we catch the virus, it can help us limit the spread, which is especially important in patients who are asymptomatic.
4. Eventual Return To Status Quo – Over time, with these measures in place, the virus should die out as more people become immune and fewer people contract the virus. Gatherings will slowly be allowed to become greater in numbers, and we’ll eventually return to a normal activities. It’s uncertain when exactly this will happen, but if we continue isolating and practice good hygiene as places begin to return, we can get here sooner.
While this research is pre-publication, it is very encouraging and not entirely unexpected. Like every epidemiologist will tell you, continued ongoing surveillance measures are necessary. For example, monitoring sewage for COVID viral RNA,
Together, we can get through this, one step at a time.
